Donald Trump is seeking to “avert conflict” in the Horn of Africa by offering to resume mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia. In a letter posted on social media, Trump appealed to Egyptian President El-Sisi, suggesting that the U.S. could lead the way to a resolution regarding the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
The proposal centers on technical guarantees. Trump believes that a “successful approach” must ensure that Egypt receives a predictable supply of water, safeguarding its population and agriculture. Simultaneously, the deal would allow Ethiopia to operate the dam to generate the “substantial amount of electricity” needed for its modernization.
The GERD has fundamentally changed the dynamics of the Nile River. Since its official opening, it has been a source of pride for Ethiopia but a source of dread for downstream nations. Egypt has consistently warned that its water share is a red line, and the lack of a binding agreement has kept tensions simmering.
Trump’s previous efforts to solve this crisis were high-profile but ultimately inconclusive. Negotiations stalled, and Ethiopia accused the U.S. of bias. Despite this, Trump has maintained that his intervention was crucial, recently stating that the dam affects the water going to the Nile and constitutes a significant problem.
This latest overture signals Trump’s intent to finish what he started. By emphasizing “strong United States role in monitoring,” he is offering a security guarantee to the parties. If accepted, this could relaunch high-level talks aimed at preventing the dispute from escalating into a more serious confrontation.